Forex Analysis & Reviews: 01.02.2022 - WTI crude drops amid jump in...

01.02.2022 08:44 AM

WTI crude drops amid jump in Brent. US may benefit from situation.

The US oil benchmark is losing value amid a jump in the price of Brent. There is no reason to panic at the moment. However, a rising difference between the benchmarks may change the US export structure.

Today, we see a spread between the prices of WTI crude and its analogue, Brent. The spread has already reached $3.50. It is a very important fact since a lower price of WTI compared to Brent may boost US exports.

Notably, when the spread reaches $4, the US oil becomes too cheap for international oil refiners, thus covering the costs of transportation and storage abroad.

Against such a background, US refineries usually stop buying foreign oil and sign contracts for the US brand. All this may change the dynamic of the trade balance if US exports slow down.

The current state of affairs could be partially explained by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Recently, traders have been overvaluing Brent crude amid the risk of a further deterioration of relations between the two countries.

In August, oil consumption surged amid the improvement of the global epidemiological situation and a jump in demand from China. As a result, international demand also became very high. However, the energy crisis in Europe and other regions altered the situation.

The Kremlin still denies any plans to invade Ukraine. Nevertheless, traders have been pricing in such a possibility. Moreover, now the US Congress intends to impose sanctions against Russia even without any attack.

Notably, Russia remains the second largest OPEC+ oil producer. However, it becomes more difficult to maintain this position. The fact is that well-known and convenient fields have been exploited for too long, whereas the number of new fields is quite small. That is why the country is doing its best to both increase capacity and meet its oil production plan.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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