empty
06.02.2025 11:29 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on February 6, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, but by the end of the day, it reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 1.2488 – 1.2508 zone. This suggests that the downtrend may continue today and tomorrow, targeting the 1.2363 – 1.2370 support zone.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern remains clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. This suggests that a bullish trend is still forming. However, recent waves have varied significantly in size, making it uncertain whether the trend can continue for another couple of weeks.

The fundamental background on Wednesday provided little support for the bulls, and as the evening approached, traders shifted focus to the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) meeting. The market expects a dovish outcome, with traders anticipating a 0.25% rate cut and an 8-1 vote in favor of monetary policy easing by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

As a result, market participants already have reasons to sell the pound. The key event will be the speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, which will set the direction for future monetary policy. If Bailey signals a readiness to continue easing or expresses concerns about the UK economy, GBP bulls are likely to retreat further.

Recently, the pound has been rising, but the fundamental backdrop does not currently support further gains. However, there is still a possibility that Bailey's tone will not be as dovish as expected. Additionally, if tomorrow's U.S. labor market and unemployment reports turn out weaker than anticipated, the bulls might have another opportunity to counterattack.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair closed above 1.2432 and above the upper boundary of the downward trend channel, which technically suggests that the uptrend may continue toward the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2565. However, on the hourly chart, the strong resistance zone and signs of a bearish reversal indicate that bulls might struggle to maintain control.

There are no emerging divergences on any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

The COT report continues to indicate a bearish shift in sentiment among non-commercial traders: Long positions decreased by 16,365 and short positions decreased by 2,950. The gap now favors bears: 59,000 long positions vs. 81,000 short positions.

The three-month trend shows that long positions have dropped from 161,000 to 59,000, while short positions have risen from 67,000 to 81,000.

This data suggests that large market participants are continuing to reduce long positions or increase short positions as all possible bullish factors for GBP have already been priced in.

While technical analysis currently signals potential for further growth, corrections should also be expected.

Key Events for the UK and US Today (February 6)

  • UK – Construction PMI (09:30 UTC)
  • UK – BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00 UTC)
  • UK – MPC Vote Split on Interest Rate Decision (12:00 UTC)
  • UK – BoE Monetary Policy Report (12:00 UTC)
  • US – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)
  • UK – BoE Governor Andrew Bailey Speech (14:15 UTC)

The economic calendar today contains several major market-moving events, and the impact on GBP/USD could be significant.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Sell positions can be considered below the 1.2488 – 1.2508 level, with a target at 1.2363 – 1.2370 (hourly chart). Buy positions can be considered if GBP/USD closes above 1.2488 – 1.2508, targeting 1.2569.

Fibonacci Levels

  • Hourly chart: 1.3000 – 1.3432
  • 4-hour chart: 1.2299 – 1.3432
Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Signals for GOLD for May 9-12, 2025: sell below $3,361 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

On the other hand, if the bearish force prevails, gold is expected to continue falling and could again test the 6/8 Murray level, which could serve as a good point

Dimitrios Zappas 15:01 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 9, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1338, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell below the support zone of 1.1240–1.1265

Samir Klishi 11:24 2025-05-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD. May 9th. The Bank of England Didn't Support the Bulls

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday formed two bounces from the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3344, turned in favor of the US dollar, and dropped

Samir Klishi 11:22 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Forex forecast 09/05/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Ethereum and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 09:53 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 8-12, 2025: buy above 1.1190 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

Early in the European session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1224, above the 200 EMA, and below the 6/8 Murray, with a bearish bias. The euro is likely

Dimitrios Zappas 06:41 2025-05-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for May 9, 2025

Yesterday's data from Germany exceeded expectations. Industrial production in March increased by 3.0%, compared to a forecast of 0.9% and a February decline of 1.3%. The March trade surplus amounted

Laurie Bailey 05:55 2025-05-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for May 9, 2025

Yesterday, the Bank of England cut its interest rate by a quarter point, with only seven members of the Committee voting in favor of the decision, contrary to the consensus

Laurie Bailey 05:15 2025-05-09 UTC+2

EUR/GBP Forecast for May 9, 2025

The EUR/GBP pair is anticipated to reverse its downward trend and begin to rise. The wedge-shaped decline since April 11 clearly has a corrective structure, and this downward movement

Laurie Bailey 05:15 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 8, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair twice rebounded from the resistance zone of 1.1374–1.1383, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a new decline toward the 100.0% corrective level

Samir Klishi 10:43 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Forex forecast 08/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USDX, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:37 2025-05-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.