विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 11.03.2025

11.03.2025 10:00 AM

Markets Do Not Forgive Betrayal

The S&P 500 sell-off accelerated amid the White House's indifference to a potential economic downturn. The broad stock index tumbled as Donald Trump refused to rule out a U.S. recession, leading to a decline driven by tech stocks. The NASDAQ 100 suffered its worst trading day since 2022, while the Magnificent Seven has already fallen 20% from its December peaks.

Performance of the Magnificent Seven Stocks

Donald Trump stated that the U.S. economy is in a transition period and that investors should not focus on the stock market. This starkly contradicts the expectations investors had following the presidential election. The Republican had promised that the U.S. would be fine, as higher tariffs would offset tax cuts. However, in early spring, the White House dramatically changed its stance, now arguing that the path to future prosperity and a new "Golden Age" requires some short-term sacrifices.

Saying that the stock market is not worth watching could be considered a betrayal. During his first presidential term, Trump used stock market performance as a benchmark of his administration's success. Investors now understand why—back then, the S&P 500 was rising, which pleased the Republican leader. Now that the index is falling, it is no longer a valid measure? Repeating his past rhetoric would mean admitting failure.

The market is increasingly fearful that tariffs could devastate the U.S. economy, leading to the first surge in the volatility index (VIX) since August. The VIX is now above 30. According to Nomura Securities, the gradual rise in the "fear index," rather than a sharp spike as seen in past market corrections, signals an increasing likelihood of further stock market declines. JP Morgan has abandoned its S&P 500 target of 6,500, which was approximately 13% above current levels, arguing that greater uncertainty creates a wider range of possible market outcomes.

U.S. Stock Market Volatility Trends

Both Citigroup and HSBC Holdings have advised clients to reduce their exposure to U.S. stocks and seek opportunities elsewhere, particularly in China and Europe. Unlike the United States, these regions are pursuing fiscal stimulus measures to mitigate the effects of ongoing or potential trade wars with the U.S.

Meanwhile, recession risks in the U.S. are soaring.

Goldman Sachs raised its probability of a U.S. recession from 15% to 20%.
Yardeni Research increased its estimate from 20% to 35%.
JP Morgan raised its forecast from 35% to 40%.
Morgan Stanley lowered its GDP growth projections to 1.5% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026.

Technical Outlook for the S&P 500

The daily chart of the S&P 500 indicates that the market remains in a correction within a broader uptrend. The index's distance from its EMA suggests growing bearish momentum. Traders should continue following the previously outlined short-selling strategy, at least as long as the index remains below 5,800. Pullbacks that fail at the 5,670 and 5,750 resistance levels could provide new short-selling opportunities.

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