empty
12.09.2024 08:08 AM
Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 12, 2024

The slowdown in inflation in the United States turned out to be more significant than even the most optimistic forecasts, yet the situation in the currency market remained unchanged. Almost immediately after it was revealed that the consumer price growth rate had slowed from 2.9% to 2.5%, major media outlets began focusing on core inflation, particularly in its monthly measure rather than the annual one. Core inflation increased by 0.3%. Although the U.S. central bank never mentions this indicator and is thus largely insignificant, the media started claiming that the Federal Reserve will slowly lower interest rates because of core inflation. As a result, the media frenzy somewhat balanced out the actual data, leaving the market in its previous position.

Today, all eyes are on the European Central Bank's board meeting. The market has long been prepared for the refinancing rate to be lowered from 4.25% to 4.00%, so this fact will not affect investor sentiment. Everything will depend on the statements ECB President Christine Lagarde may make during the subsequent press conference, particularly regarding the central bank's future actions. The market is concerned only with the pace of monetary policy easing at least until the end of this year. If the head of the ECB announces even one more rate cut, it will substantially boost the U.S. dollar, allowing it to continue strengthening its position.

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD pair reached the 1.1000 level during high volatility, but no significant changes occurred. The volume of short positions on the euro decreased again, leading to stagnation within the upper deviation of the psychological range of 1.1000/1.1050.

In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the lower 30/50 area, indicating bearish sentiment among market participants.

Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point downwards, aligning with the price movement's direction.

Expectations and Prospects

For the next stage of decline, the price needs to stabilize below the 1.1000 mark. However, this will only shift the support level locally to the lower region of the psychological level. Until then, traders are likely to consider a scenario of stagnation or a price rebound from the psychological level. A significant increase in long positions on the euro is possible if the price stabilizes above the 1.1050 mark.

The complex indicator analysis points to a price rebound in the short term, while indicators focused on a downward cycle in the intraday period.

Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on December 10, 2024

The currency market continues to consolidate around levels reached on Friday, primarily due to the complete absence of any macroeconomic data. With today's economic calendar remaining empty and the European

Dean Leo 05:52 2024-12-10 UTC+2

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on December 9, 2024

The unemployment rate in the United States increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, which was not entirely unexpected. However, the dollar strengthened. The key driver was the creation of 227,000

Dean Leo 06:27 2024-12-09 UTC+2

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2024

Eurozone retail sales growth slowed significantly from 3.0% to 1.9%, much worse than even the most pessimistic forecasts. Yet, the euro still managed to gain ground. It is impossible

Dean Leo 06:31 2024-12-06 UTC+2

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 05.12.2024

The rate of decline in producer prices in the Eurozone slowed from -3.4% to -3.2%, contrary to expectations of an acceleration to -3.5%. This indicates that, while likely to decrease

Dean Leo 06:37 2024-12-05 UTC+2

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on December 4, 2024

The number of job openings in the United States was expected to decrease by 63,000 but increased by 372,000. However, it's difficult to draw any conclusions from this data because

Dean Leo 06:30 2024-12-04 UTC+2

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on December 3, 2024

Instead of rising from 6.3% to 6.4%, the Eurozone unemployment rate remained unchanged. However, this did not impact the market, and prices stayed flat. This is partly due to news

Dean Leo 06:30 2024-12-03 UTC+2

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 02.12.2024

Despite the acceleration of annual inflation in the Eurozone from 2.0% to 2.3%, the euro failed to rise and even weakened. Although the scale of the decline was limited

Dean Leo 05:52 2024-12-02 UTC+2

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 27, 2024

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes didn't reveal anything new. Given the dollar's excessive overbought condition, a continuation of the corrective movement, that is, some strengthening

Dean Leo 06:24 2024-11-27 UTC+2

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 26, 2024

Despite some fluctuations, the market is essentially at a standstill. This pattern may persist until the FOMC meeting minutes are published this evening. A significant reaction is only likely

Dean Leo 06:46 2024-11-26 UTC+2

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 25, 2024

The preliminary PMI data for the Eurozone delivered a negative surprise. Instead of expected growth, all indicators declined. The Services PMI fell from 51.6 to 49.2 (forecast: 52.0)

Dean Leo 06:26 2024-11-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.