Analisis Forex & Kajian: 26.06.2024 - Gold at $3000. Myth or...

26.06.2024 01:08 PM

Gold at $3000. Myth or reality?

Bank of America predicts gold prices to rise to $3000 per ounce over the next 12-18 months, while the precious metal retreats against the backdrop of remarks by FOMC official Michelle Bowman about the prospects of raising the federal funds rate. If the disinflationary process slows down or inflation starts to paint a new peak. Just holding borrowing costs at a plateau of 5.5% suffocates the oxygen for "bulls" on XAU/USD, and now there's talk of tightening monetary policy. It's no wonder that futures at arm's length approached key support at $2300 per ounce.

Bank of America believes that the main driver of gold price increases will be investment demand. Against the backdrop of an unrestrained rally in US stock indices, investors have been withdrawing money from ETFs and putting it into the stock market. However, this cannot continue indefinitely. Stabilization of holdings in specialized exchange-traded funds as the Federal Reserve's monetary expansion begins could signal a resurgence of the uptrend in XAU/USD. According to WGC data, there was an inflow of $212 million in the week ending June 21.Dynamics of gold-oriented ETF holdings

According to Bank of America's estimates, if investment demand increases by 20%, gold will soar to $2500 per ounce. In reality, non-commercial purchases have only increased by 3% since the first quarter, which is sufficient to justify a price of $2200.Is $3000 per ounce a lot or a little? Not long ago, this figure seemed astronomical, akin to $200 per barrel for oil. It's doubtful that Brent or WTI will ever reach that level. However, $3000 for gold doesn't seem outlandish now. This represents a 30% rally in XAU/USD. In just the past year, gold has gained 21%. Why shouldn't it achieve more?The insatiable appetite from China and central banks, the rise in government debt in the US and worldwide, and the cold war between China, Russia, and Iran on one side and the US and its allies on the other are paving the way for precious metals to move higher. De-dollarization and diversification of gold and foreign exchange reserves by central banks are in full swing, causing XAU/USD to break Intermarket relationships that have been forming for decades.Gold dynamics and US Treasury bond yields

Officially, Beijing has stopped buying gold after 18 months of continuous acquisition. However, China is still increasing its reserves through intermediaries. Its holdings of US Treasury bonds fell by $102 billion over the 12 months ending in March 2024, reaching a 25-year low of $767 billion. De-dollarization is in full swing, which means any pullback in XAU/USD is unlikely to be significant if it happens at all.Technically, on the daily gold chart, the Head and Shoulders pattern can still be activated and realized. A break of the neckline around $2298 per ounce will be the basis for short-term sales. Conversely, a return of quotes above the moving averages at $2340 will be a reason to buy.

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Fundamental analysis

Marek Petkovich,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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