Analisis Forex & Kajian: 14.02.2025 - USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips...

14.02.2025 05:04 PM

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 14th (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 152.46 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark and remained in oversold territory for a considerable time. This confirmed the buy scenario for the dollar, resulting in a 40-point increase.

Today, the market awaits key data, including:

U.S. Retail Sales (January)
U.S. Industrial Production (January)
Speech by FOMC Member Lorie K. Logan

The market will closely monitor retail sales figures. A decline in consumer activity could indicate a slowdown in economic growth. Conversely, stable or rising sales may support positive sentiment, suggesting economic resilience despite inflation and high interest rates.

Industrial production data will also be crucial. An increase in production volumes signals improved business activity and could be seen as a sign of economic strength. However, a decline in production may indicate weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and dwindling demand.

Lorie K. Logan's speech could provide insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plans. Investors will be looking for clues on how the FOMC assesses the current economic landscape and what steps may be taken to combat inflation and maintain stability.

For intraday trading, I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY at 152.81 (green line on the chart), targeting an increase to 153.41 (thicker green line). At 153.41, I will exit buy trades and initiate sell trades, expecting a 30-35 point retracement. The dollar's rise today will depend on strong U.S. data.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 152.46, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to 152.81 and 153.41 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after it breaks below 152.46 (red line on the chart), which will likely trigger a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 151.81, where I will exit short trades and immediately open buy trades (expecting a 20-25 point retracement).Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 152.81, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to 152.46 and 151.81 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
Thick green line – target price for taking profit or manually locking in gains, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
Thick red line – target price for taking profit or manually locking in gains, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
MACD Indicator: It is important to monitor overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.

Important Notes

Beginner Forex traders must be cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper risk management and trade with large volumes.

A clear trading plan—such as the one outlined above—is essential for success. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market movements are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

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