Analisis Forex & Kajian: 11.03.2025 - Recession Fears Weigh on the...

11.03.2025 11:05 AM

Recession Fears Weigh on the U.S. Stock Market (Expect Further Decline in CFD Contracts #NDX and #SPX)

On Monday, the U.S. stock market plunged, dragging down European trading platforms and Asian markets in early Tuesday trading. Trump's trade wars remain a central theme, fueling uncertainty among investors.

Investors are growing increasingly concerned about the U.S. economy, which is showing signs of sliding into a recession amid persistently high inflation. Recent economic data further reinforce these fears. However, President Donald Trump dismissed concerns raised by the business community regarding the uncertainty surrounding his tariff policies. In a Sunday interview with Fox News, he acknowledged potential "disruptions," but stated that "the government is completely fine with it."

As a result, the three major U.S. stock indices fell between 2.08% and 4.00% on Monday, deepening the ongoing correction in the U.S. stock market.

Weak Labor Market Data Add to Market Anxiety

Additional concerns about the state of the U.S. economy arose after Friday's employment report. While the report showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 151,000 new jobs, the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.0% to 4.1%. The prevailing pessimism led to increased demand for U.S. Treasuries, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield below 4.2%. This, combined with growing interest in safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar, underscores the prevailing risk-off sentiment.

Although neither the dollar nor gold showed significant gains, price stabilization in these assets suggests that investors are seeking safety.

Key Market Drivers: Recession Risks and Tariff Wars

The primary concern remains the risk of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession, exacerbated by Trump's trade wars and persistently high inflation.

Market Rebound or a Temporary Correction?

At the European market open, futures on the three major U.S. stock indices showed positive momentum, while crude oil and other commodity assets also rebounded after Monday's sell-off.

The key question: Is this the beginning of a recovery, or just a temporary rebound?

At this point, it is difficult to say. Trump's economic policies remain unchanged, and there are no visible signs of improvement or positive outcomes. Therefore, the correction in U.S. equities still has room to extend further.

Market Focus: JOLTS Job Openings Report

Today, the market will closely watch the JOLTS Job Openings report, expected to show an increase to 7.65 million in January from 7.60 million in December.

A strong report could provide a short-term boost to the stock market, lifting equity indices temporarily. However, any upward correction is likely to be short-lived, as negative sentiment remains dominant in the market.

Daily Forecast:

#NDX (NASDAQ 100 Futures CFD)

The NASDAQ 100 CFD contract may attempt a recovery to 19,890.00, driven by a positive JOLTS report and profit-taking from recent sell-offs. However, ongoing market negativity suggests that the index may reverse and continue its correction down toward 18,895.00.

#SPX (S&P 500 Futures CFD)

The S&P 500 CFD contract may attempt to climb to 5,700.20 following a potentially positive JOLTS report and profit-taking on previous losses. However, given the persistent bearish market sentiment, it is highly likely to resume its downward correction toward 5,521.00.

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Weak Labor Market Data Add to Market Anxiety

Key Market Drivers: Recession Risks and Tariff Wars