empty
28.03.2025 08:07 PM
GBP/USD Analysis – March 28th

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument remains somewhat ambiguous, but overall digestible. At this stage, there is a strong likelihood that a long-term downward trend segment is forming. Wave 5 has taken a convincing shape, so I consider the larger wave 1 to be complete. If this assumption is correct, wave 2 is currently in progress, targeting the 1.26–1.28 range. The first two sub-waves within wave 2 appear complete, and the third could finish at any moment.

Demand for the pound has recently been supported solely by the "Trump factor," which remains the main driver behind sterling's strength. However, in the longer term—beyond a few days—the pound still lacks a fundamental basis for growth. The Bank of England's and the Federal Reserve's positions have recently shifted in favor of the pound, as the BoE is now also not rushing to cut interest rates. The current wave structure remains intact for now, but any further rise in the pair could raise serious doubts.

The GBP/USD rate rose by 70 basis points on Thursday and gained another modest 10 points on Friday. The rate may still shift by the end of the day, but I don't expect much market activity as the week closes. Demand for the pound has been increasing for two days straight, but not as strongly as some might hope. On Thursday night, Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on all auto exports to the U.S., which partially affected the UK. Yet it wasn't the British pound that fell—it was the U.S. dollar. This is how the market currently reacts to any new tariffs and escalations in trade tensions instigated by Trump.

Today, the UK released strong retail sales figures and a surprisingly solid GDP report for Q4. While the economy didn't show significant growth, it still expanded by 1.5% year-over-year compared to the 1.4% forecast, and by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, matching expectations. Retail sales volumes rose by 1%. It's worth noting that the UK doesn't often deliver upbeat statistics. Just on Wednesday, the inflation report gave the pound another headache. However, Trump once again came to the rescue, and the pound managed to avoid losses. Price movement has been minimal this week, so the wave structure has remained largely unchanged. There's nothing new to add.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD suggests that the formation of a downward trend segment continues, as does its second wave. I would currently recommend looking for new selling opportunities, as the existing wave structure still indicates the formation of a bearish trend that began last autumn. However, how Trump and his policies will continue to influence market sentiment—and for how long—remains an open question. The current rally in the pound appears excessive relative to the wave pattern. The recent BoE and FOMC meetings could have been the launch point for wave 3, but they likely won't be. And April 2 is still ahead...

At the higher wave scale, the structure has shifted. We can now assume that a downward trend segment is developing, as the preceding upward three-wave pattern has clearly completed. If this assumption holds, we should expect a corrective wave 2 or b, followed by an impulsive wave 3 or c.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are hard to trade and often lead to changes.
  2. If you're uncertain about the market situation, it's better not to enter.
  3. Absolute certainty in market direction does not and cannot exist. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Analisis GBP/USD pada 1 Mei 2025

Pola gelombang untuk GBP/USD juga telah berubah menjadi struktur menaik yang impulsif — "terima kasih" kepada Donald Trump. Pola gelombang ini hampir sama dengan EUR/USD. Sehingga 28 Februari, kita menyaksikan

Chin Zhao 18:56 2025-05-01 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD pada 30 April 2025

Corak gelombang pada carta 4 jam bagi pasangan EUR/USD kini telah berubah kepada struktur menaik. Saya percaya tiada siapa yang meragui bahawa transformasi ini berlaku semata-mata disebabkan dasar perdagangan baharu

Chin Zhao 18:17 2025-04-30 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD pada 30 April 2025

Pola gelombang pasangan GBP/USD juga telah berubah menjadi struktur kenaikan yang impulsif — "terima kasih" kepada Donald Trump. Struktur gelombang ini hampir sama dengan EUR/USD. Sehingga 28 Februari, kami telah

Chin Zhao 18:14 2025-04-30 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD pada 27 April 2025

Struktur gelombang untuk pasangan GBP/USD juga telah berubah menjadi corak menaik yang bersifat impulsif — "berterima kasih" kepada Donald Trump. Corak gelombang ini hampir sama dengan pasangan EUR/USD. Sehingga

Chin Zhao 19:42 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Ramalan Mingguan Berdasarkan Analisis Gelombang Ringkas untuk GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, dan Indeks Dolar AS — 28 April

Pada minggu yang akan datang, nilai pound British berkemungkinan besar untuk mengikuti trajektori mendatar secara umum. Penurunan harga yang singkat dijangka berlaku pada awal minggu. Menjelang hujung minggu, volatiliti dijangka

Isabel Clark 09:32 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Ramalan Mingguan Berdasarkan Analisis Gelombang Ringkas untuk EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD dan EMAS — 28 April

Pada permulaan minggu akan datang, mata wang Eropah dijangka terus bergerak mendatar di sepanjang zon balas arah yang telah dikira. Pergerakan ke bawah lebih berkemungkinan pada awal minggu. Menjelang hujung

Isabel Clark 09:28 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD pada 25 April 2025

Pola gelombang pada carta EUR/USD 4 jam telah beralih kepada pembentukan menaik. Boleh dikatakan bahawa transformasi ini berlaku semata-mata disebabkan oleh dasar perdagangan A.S. yang baru. Sehingga 28 Februari, apabila

Chin Zhao 20:26 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD pada 25 April 2025

Corak gelombang pada carta GBP/USD juga telah berubah kepada struktur impulsif menaik—"terima kasih" kepada Donald Trump. Gambaran gelombang ini hampir menyerupai pasangan EUR/USD. Sehingga 28 Februari, kita dapat melihat pembentukan

Chin Zhao 20:21 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Analisis GBP/USD pada 24 April 2025

Pola gelombang untuk GBP/USD kini juga telah berubah menjadi struktur menaik yang bersifat impulsif—"berkat" Donald Trump. Struktur gelombang ini hampir sama dengan apa yang berlaku pada EUR/USD. Sehingga 28 Februari

Chin Zhao 20:18 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Analisis EUR/USD pada 24 April, 2025

Corak gelombang pada carta 4-jam EUR/USD telah berubah menjadi struktur impulsif menaik. Saya percaya tidak ada keraguan bahawa transformasi ini berlaku semata-mata disebabkan oleh dasar perdagangan baru Amerika Syarikat. Sebelum

Chin Zhao 20:14 2025-04-24 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.