empty
28.12.2023 11:57 PM
Increased risk appetite is supporting commodity currencies. Overview of USD, NZD, AUD

The macroeconomic data coming in the last days of the outgoing year are secondary and do not affect the assessment of currency exchange rate prospects.

Some regional branches of the Federal Reserve have reported on manufacturing activity in December. The Chicago Fed reported some increase in activity, Dallas believes that manufacturing activity has not changed after a contraction in November, and Richmond sees a decline. It is a mixed bag of data, but one thing is clear - the impetus for GDP growth has clearly slowed down, the US is losing one of the key advantages that provided an influx of funds into the stock market and demand for the dollar.

Overall, in the last month, US data have turned out worse than expected, as indicated by the clear slowdown in the Economic Surprise indicator. At the same time, news from Europe have been better than expected, which is partially responsible for the euro's stability, as well as better-than-expected news from China. The latter factor, along with expectations of a Fed rate cut, is clearly supporting demand for commodity currencies.

This image is no longer relevant

We did not expect any surprises during Thursday's European session, as no important news reports are scheduled for the day. In the evening, the market may be stirred by the weekly US labor market reports. In any case, it is necessary to consider that risks increase in thin markets even in the absence of significant macroeconomic factors.

The US dollar remains under pressure, and it still doesn't have any reason to rise.

NZD/USD

The flow of economic news from New Zealand in December has not improved, with the economy showing a decline in three out of the last five months, increasing the likelihood of a GDP contraction in the last quarter.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate has been at 5.5% since May. However, unlike the Fed, at its last meeting on November 29, the RBNZ took a much more hawkish stance, changing a series of forecasts that increased the probability of further monetary tightening. The market sees the rate peaking at 5.7% with approximately a 6-month delay before the start of an easing cycle, with no expected full rate cuts until mid-2025.

Despite the market's initial skepticism towards the RBNZ's hawkish stance and New Zealand bond yields starting to decline in sync with the market, it is still necessary to consider that the difference in monetary policy approaches between the RBNZ and the Fed will continue to grow. Risk appetite is also increasing rapidly, providing a basis for the rise of commodity currencies, particularly AUD and NZD.

No economic news scheduled on Friday, so the kiwi will primarily move based on the general market direction, which satisfies risk appetite. Therefore, there is no reason to expect a downturn in NZD/USD unless some unexpected information emerges in the coming days that would cause a reassessment of risk appetite prospects. The chances of such an event are still small.

The net short NZD position has decreased to 0.4 billion, and the price is firmly moving higher, indicating a shift in financial flows in favor of the kiwi.

This image is no longer relevant

NZD/USD continues to advance, marking a 5-month high, and there are no signs of it losing momentum. The nearest target is 0.6409, and then 0.6533. A corrective pullback to the downside is unlikely in the current conditions.

AUD/USD

The primary factor affecting the aussie's exchange rate is directly related to the inflation level and the response to incoming Reserve Bank of Australia data. Currently, there is a growing belief that inflation is slowing down, with a confident forecast for a decrease in inflation in the fourth quarter as government subsidy programs expire and wage growth remains moderate, allowing for a reduction in inflation expectations.

The growth of production has also slowed down, and consumption is expected to decline.

The RBA interest rate forecast at the moment is as follows: it is expected that in February, the rate will be raised by a quarter percent from the current 4.35% and will remain at 4.6% until the end of 2024. This forecast supports demand for the AUD, as the Fed's interest rate forecast implies 4 rate cuts in 2024, meaning that the yield spread will shift in favor of the Australian currency.

The risk lies in how quickly the economy will slow down. If GDP growth slows down faster than forecasts, and the purchasing power of the population declines at a rate worse than expected, then the RBA may change its view on the interest rate level earlier than the current forecasts and may also start lowering rates. Such a scenario is possible, but it still assumes changes not in the near future but rather in the second half of 2024, which is not relevant for the current demand for the aussie.

We assume that the markets will continue to react to the changes in the approaches of the Fed and the RBA, while the demand for the aussie will remain stable.

The net short AUD position decreased to -3.1 billion during the reporting week, positioning is slowly shifting in favor of the aussie. The price is above the long-term average and is steadily rising.

This image is no longer relevant

AUD/USD is building on its success, approaching the resistance area of 0.6890/6905, which is the nearest target. Beyond that, the target shifts to 0.7160. However, considering that the aussie's rise in the past two months has been dealt with nearly no corrections, there's a possibility of a technical retracement within the 38% range of the move, after which the uptrend will likely continue. If the pair reaches the level of 0.6890/6905, support will shift to the area of 0.6660/90, where, in the event of a retracement to this level, traders will likely go back to buying the pair again.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

WTI ganha apoio com o aumento das tensões geopolíticas no Médio Oriente

Pelo terceiro dia consecutivo, o petróleo bruto West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continua atraindo compradores. Atualmente, a commodity é negociada ligeiramente acima do nível psicológico chave de US$ 68,00, acumulando alta

Irina Yanina 22:09 2025-03-18 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o iene japonês continua em queda, impulsionando o USD/JPY para perto do nível psicológico chave de 150,00, com o par atingindo uma nova máxima de dois dias em torno

Irina Yanina 20:10 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Dados positivos da China e o aumento do apetite por risco sustentam uma perspectiva de alta para o Kiwi - Análise do NZD/USD

O dólar neozelandês (NZD) ganhou outro forte fator de alta, já que o Índice ANZ de Preços de Commodities registrou outro sólido aumento em fevereiro, subindo 3,0%

Kuvat Raharjo 17:18 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Não são esperadas grandes surpresas na reunião do Fed, com previsão de uma queda acentuada do EUR/USD e um crescimento contínuo e cauteloso do preço do ouro

Os mercados estão passando por uma turbulência devido ao risco de uma recessão econômica nos EUA. Embora o Secretário do Tesouro, Bessent, tente tranquilizar os investidores chamando a "correção"

Pati Gani 16:42 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 18 de março? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há uma série de eventos macroeconômicos programados para terça-feira, mas nenhum deles é significativo. Por exemplo, a zona do euro e a Alemanha divulgarão os índices de sentimento econômico

Paolo Greco 16:09 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Visão geral do par GBP/USD - 18 de março: A libra sobe persistentemente

Na segunda-feira, o par GBP/USD continuou sua trajetória de alta. Não houve eventos relevantes no Reino Unido, e nos EUA, apenas um relatório foi divulgado, sem causar a nova queda

Paolo Greco 15:50 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Visão geral do par EUR/USD - 18 de março: A pausa chegou ao fim

O par de moedas EUR/USD retomou seu movimento de alta. Como houve poucas notícias ao longo do dia, e nenhuma delas foi significativa, a volatilidade permaneceu relativamente baixa, impedindo

Paolo Greco 15:38 2025-03-18 UTC+2

O mercado navega em águas turvas

O caos na política econômica da Casa Branca levou o S&P 500 à beira do abismo. O índice amplo de ações entrou brevemente em território de correção antes

Marek Petkovich 14:46 2025-03-18 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Análise e previsão

O iene japonês permanece em território defensivo frente ao dólar dos EUA, impulsionado pela melhora no sentimento de risco global após as novas medidas de estímulo anunciadas pela China

Irina Yanina 20:01 2025-03-17 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.