empty
27.03.2024 10:48 AM
It's time for gold to cool down

Gold has surged by 5.1% since the beginning of the year, breaking the significant milestone of $2,200 per ounce for the first time ever. The upward trajectory of XAU/USD appears robust, yet the question remains: do the bulls possess adequate momentum to sustain the rally? It seems the previous advantages of the precious metal have been depleted, with no new ones on the horizon. Perhaps it's time for a correction.

A favorable external background for gold is considered to be the slowdown of the American economy, which pushes the Federal Reserve towards reducing the federal funds rate, the increase in geopolitical tensions, and strong demand for physical assets. In this regard, the conflict in the Middle East, increased purchases of precious metals by central banks and China have become catalysts for the XAU/USD rally. However, the World Gold Council does not forecast that central banks will break records from 2022, and the 48% month-on-month reduction in gold imports by China through Hong Kong to 39.8 tons indicates a waning demand.

Dynamics of Gold Imports by China via Hong Kong

This image is no longer relevant

Goldman Sachs and Invesco believe that the widespread loosening of monetary policy by the world's leading central banks will create a tailwind for commodity market assets due to increased consumption by companies and the population. However, the Federal Reserve does not intend to rush with rate cuts. Moreover, at the beginning of 2024, investors expected six acts of monetary expansion per year. Now, only three are expected. This has led to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major world currencies and an increase in Treasury bond yields. Both factors are bearish for XAU/USD.

One of the reasons cited is the strength of the American economy. If in September Bloomberg experts forecasted a GDP expansion of 0.9% in 2024, then in March they raised their estimates to 2.2%. Against this background, gold should feel out of place.

Dynamics of the Commodity Market Index

This image is no longer relevant

Nevertheless, the precious metal is not in a hurry to leave the area of record highs. It is not deterred by negative capital flows into specialized exchange-traded funds, the leadership of the U.S. dollar in the G10 currency race, and Financial Times experts' forecasts that the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds rate no more than twice in 2024.

This image is no longer relevant

This could happen if American inflation continues to accelerate and ultimately reaches a new peak. In this regard, the increase in the pace of growth in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index in February is a reason for caution for the Federal Reserve. There is currently a split within the central bank. While Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that rates should be lowered once this year, his Chicago colleague Austan Goolsbee advocates for three acts of monetary expansion.

Technically, several reversal patterns can be formed on the daily gold chart—from 1-2-3 to Head and Shoulders. The bears' intention to seize the initiative is confirmed by the emergence of a pin bar with a long upper shadow. To work with it, a breakthrough of the base near $2,168 per ounce is required. A successful assault on this support level could be used to sell the precious metal.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 9 de mayo. El Banco de Inglaterra ha confundido aún más a los traders.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el jueves se negoció primero a la baja y luego al alza, por lo que la conclusión es evidente: el mercado no ha decidido

Paolo Greco 07:45 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 9 de mayo. Powell y la Fed no cambiaron nada.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó negociándose el jueves dentro del mismo canal lateral, claramente visible en el marco temporal de una hora, prácticamente hasta la noche. Tras la reunión

Paolo Greco 07:45 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. 7 de mayo. Trump no recibió la llamada desde China. Tuvo que retroceder.

El martes el par de divisas GBP/USD inició un nuevo ciclo de crecimiento mientras el euro continuaba su flat,. En realidad, el crecimiento comenzó ya el lunes, pero

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de mayo. La reunión de la Fed, como nuevo "dolor de cabeza" para el dólar.

El par EUR/USD continuó moviéndose de manera lateral durante la jornada del martes. Recordemos que el flat general dura ya casi un mes, pero además de eso, el mercado

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de mayo. Trump toma el control de la industria cinematográfica.

El par GBP/USD también se negoció al alza durante la primera mitad del día lunes, y a la baja durante la segunda. Aunque esta vez la moneda estadounidense no perdió

Paolo Greco 07:39 2025-05-06 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 6 de mayo. La protesta contra Donald Trump continúa.

El par EUR/USD comenzó un nuevo ciclo de crecimiento el lunes. Probablemente, ya nadie se sorprende por otra caída del dólar estadounidense. El mercado comenzó a vender la moneda estadounidense

Paolo Greco 07:39 2025-05-06 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se ha perdido en el mismo lugar

Donald Trump prometió convertir a América en la cripto capital del mundo, casi organizar un paraíso para los entusiastas del mundo cripto. Sin embargo, en la práctica ha confundido tanto

Marek Petkovich 13:53 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 5 de mayo. Reuniones del Banco de Inglaterra y la Fed.

El par de divisas GBP/USD tampoco logró ni subir ni bajar durante el día. Muchos expertos interpretaron los datos laborales y de desempleo de EE.UU. como positivos, simplemente porque

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 5 de mayo. Nueva semana de sufrimiento para el dólar.

El par EUR/USD el viernes en general se mantuvo en su nivel. Durante el día se observó tanto subida como caída. Para el dólar es una suerte el hecho

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 2 de mayo. La divisa estadounidense subió por poco tiempo

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó cayendo durante el jueves. El dólar fortaleció sus posiciones durante tres días consecutivos, para lo cual objetivamente no había ninguna razón. El contexto macroeconómico

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-05-02 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.