Forex Analysis & Reviews: 16.12.2021 - Will ECB halt euro rally?

16.12.2021 10:56 AM

Will ECB halt euro rally?

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The euro went on a rally yesterday, recovering past losses ahead of the ECB meeting. EUR/USD jumped by 80 pips yesterday and continues to be on the upside, surpassing the 1.1300 mark on Wednesday. Could it be a strong reversal?

Earlier, the Federal Reserve announced the acceleration of QE tapering, as well as hinted at hiking the interest rate 3 times in 2022. This long-awaited decision has already been priced in by the market, and traders took profits after the initial reaction to the Fed's hawkish statements. The euro is taking advantage of the situation, but today's ECB meeting could change its course.

Two major central banks will conduct meetings today almost simultaneously - the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Their decisions are likely to influence the world's major currencies significantly.

EUR/USD has tested 1.1300, which is a good sign. However, its further course would be decided at 1.1325, where it will encounter strong resistance. If the pair breaks above this resistance level, it could lead to a short squeeze, pushing the quote up towards 1.1380 and 1.1400. A continuing upside movement in this area would open the way towards 1.1440, as well as testing the key psychological level of 1.1500 later on. If the pair settles above 1.1400, an upward reversal could be possible, though it is impossible to predict if it would last.

If EUR/USD slides below 1.1260, it would face support at 1.1220 before testing 1.1200. A break below 1.1200 would put a definite end to the rally, opening the way to 1.1185. From there, 1.1145 and 1.1100 would be the new targets for bears.

EUR/GBP is another pair to follow today. Investors remain cautious ahead of the meeting of the Bank of England.

The quote has recently managed to take 0.8500, but settling in this area would be quite difficult. On their way up towards the high of November and December at 0.8600, EUR/GBP would face resistance at 0.8552 and 0.8558.

If EUR/GBP closes below the 100-day DMA line at 0.8483, the oair could move down towards 0.8460, targeting 0.8445 and 0.8420.